Immigration and Crime do not Correlate

“data suggests that either immigration has the effect of reducing average crime, or that there is simply no relationship between the two.” 

A systematic study of the relationship between crime and immigration the “data suggests that either immigration has the effect of reducing average crime, or that there is simply no relationship between the two.”  Crime fell more often than it rose even as immigrant populations increased in areas.

While politicians and other demagogues love blame the “outsiders” and “foreigners” for the problems of our community, the facts don’t support their claims.

On the chart below, note how the pink dots representing small and large cities where crime has increased since 1980 cluster to the left of the chart — the less immigrants side of the chart.

Chart - Immigrants and Crime scatter plot - NYT - 2018-03-31

Source: NYT 3/31/18.

Chart: Who Votes in Midterms

There are three ways to compel a democratically elected government to act:

  1. A revolution – overthrow them.
  2. Agitation that is strong and so pervasive in the media, and yet sympathetically covered, that the voting majority is influenced by the group’s actions in their voting choices.
  3. Voting.

Chart - Who voted in 2014 midterm - NYT - 2018-02-28

Source: NYT 2/28/18.

Economist, Albert Hirschman described disgruntled citizens’ options: Exit, Voice, or Loyalty.  Voting is voice.

Chart: Gun Deaths by Country

How violent is the US? The US is only second to Iraq, of all the North African and Middle East countries, in gun deaths (sic).

The two charts below offer a stark comparison.  The first compares the US to countries with the lowest rates of gun violence, including several industrial powers – England and Germany.

The second compares the US to what our media would lead us to believe are some of the most violent countries at the heart of middle east conflicts.  The US level of gun violence is exceeded only by Iraq, a country that has been in a three-way civil war since 2006.

Chart - Gun Deaths by Country

Source: NPR.

 

Chart - US Gun deaths vs. Middle East countries - NPR 2018-02-18